Proof: Regardless of your chosen system before implementing it in the real platform must meet the following steps. You should take a sample of not less than 3 months of the performance of their signals, this is to see and read the entries and the amount of points dropped by their triggers. Record each transaction in a excel sheet that provides the minimum information: time of admission, number of points earned operations, missed operations, number of consecutive operations won, and amount lost consecutive operations. At the end of an important measurement to consider is what is the average number of points produced by each operation.
Counter: After evaluating the results of your test to the past, to prove in real time on their demo platform strategies and especially pay attention to their own behavior when you execute orders to enter the market as this is a differential the test, where human error is evaluated, delays or anticipated income market. Evaluate the data obtained by minimally 15 days of management and compare them against data from the test phase, the average between the two is their likelihood of success.
Probability: The probability measures the frequency with which a particular result appears when you perform an experiment. Should be expressed as a percentage. The optimal rate is 65% of cases with a favorable or development cost in excess of 10 points at least. If your trading system gets a larger share to 65% of cases measured between test and counter favorable mathematical chance you have on each transaction and within the total of transactions made in a period of time will operate the law of large numbers in its favor. This working hypothesis should link strictly with the amount of points you can lose considers each operation and must not be allowed to go against the logic of many operations and win in a conference room able to lose everything.
Probability in place of rule
If an experiment anyone can give rise to a finite number of possible outcomes, and there is no reason to favor performance against others, it is estimated the probability of a Trigger Event A, according to the rule in place of the ratio between the number A case in favor, and all the possible outcomes of the experiment:
